O-Line: The Fantasy Football Key to Winning, Part 2

So the draft went down yesterday afternoon and was a 12 team draft (We drafted from the 10 spot). Here are the results (It was tough to go through 10 rounds drafting players from only those teams with a pre-season top 10 O-Line rank. Next year, we'll open it up to the top 15 O-Lines):
1. Ryan Grant (From 10 spot in a 12 team draft, the strategy was to load up on backs grab a stud QB, a solid TE and hopefully get lucky with late picks on WRs. Drafted Grant, and Portis and Lynch were still on the board, but had to pass b/c o-lines are not in top 10)
2. Drew Brees (Manning, Romo, and Brady gone)
3. Reggie Bush (at this point RB was getting very thin)
4. Wes Welker (Wanted to go TE here, but Witten was picked and the only other options were Gates and Winslow. We felt Welker provided more value in this spot and held off on TE).
5. Dallas Clark (Could've gone Shockey, but already had 2 Saints)
6. Chester Taylor (In a 12+ team league, We like this pick at 6, 7, or 8 this year. He'll see a lot of touches and we don't think AP will be healthy for the whole season)
7. Fred Taylor (Still loading up on backs--if he can stay out of jail, this might be the most valuable pick of the draft)
8. Deuce McAllister (Still loading up on backs--actually, if he can stay out of IR, this might be the most valuable pick of the draft)
9. Donte Stallworth (WR becoming very thin at this point and we needed a #2-Stallworth is a deep sleeper this year)
10. Donald Driver (should be better than last year)

The rest of the draft we picked Kitna, Tim Hightower, Jabar Gaffney, Baltimore D, Mike Nugent...All in all, not a bad draft, but we're definitely weak at the WR spot, but have some that could surprise (Stallworth and Gaffney).

Check back every week during the season to see how this team performs. We'll post this team and our weekly opponents and also track how many of our guys end up as top 10 players at their position.

Here is the scoring system that will be used in this league:
Passing Yards (50 yards per point)Passing Touchdowns (6)Interceptions (-2)Sacks (-1)Rushing Yards (20 yards per point)Rushing Touchdowns (6)Reception Yards (20 yards per point)Reception Touchdowns (6)Return Yards (50 yards per point)Return Touchdowns (6)2-Point Conversions (2)Fumbles Lost (-2)Offensive Fumble Return TD (6)Field Goals 0-19 Yards (3)Field Goals 20-29 Yards (3)Field Goals 30-39 Yards (3)Field Goals 40-49 Yards (4)Field Goals 50+ Yards (5)Point After Attempt Made (1)Sack (1)Interception (2)Fumble Recovery (2)Touchdown (6)Safety (2)Block Kick (2)Return Yards (50 yards per point)Kickoff and Punt Return Touchdowns (6)Points Allowed 0 points (10)Points Allowed 1-6 points (7)Points Allowed 7-13 points (4)Points Allowed 14-20 points (1)Points Allowed 21-27 points (0)Points Allowed 28-34 points (-1)Points Allowed 35+ points (-4)

O-Line: The Fantasy Football Key to Winning, Part 1

Top Fantasy Quarterbacks

Everyone loves Tom "I Could Kill You with My Dimples" Brady. He broke all sorts of records last year. We, however, still like Peyton "I Never Beat the Gators" Manning. We expect Brady to come back down to Earth and the strong armed Colt to take the top spot. His brother? That's right, Eli "I am Still A Momma's Boy" Manning is ahead of everyone's popular #3 Tony "I Love Nick Lachey's Sloppy Seconds" Romo. The data don't lie people! (For the record: Not sold on Vince Young myself-but that's why they play the game)

Our Top 20:

Peyton Manning
Tom Brady
Carson Palmer
Brett Favre
Drew Brees
Matt Hasselbeck
Donovan McNabb
Ben Roethlisberger
Marc Bulger
Vince Young
Eli Manning
Jake Delhomme
Tony Romo
Derek Anderson
Jon Kitna
Jay Cutler
Jeff Garcia
Jason Campbell
Kurt Warner
Philip Rivers

"I will shuck anything - for a price."

Top Fantasy Wide Receivers

OK. Not as many surprises here. Yes, Chad "Oucho My Career is Cinco" Johnson is #1 but let's face it - he has been consistently good over the years and it is a contract year for him. Everybody's Top 2 are our 3-4 - but the data don't lie.

Here is our Top 20:
Chad Johnson
Torry Holt
Randy Moss
Terrell Owens
Reggie Wayne
Marques Colston
Larry Fitzgerald
Marvin Harrison
T.J. Houshmandzade
Steve Smith
Anquan Boldin
Hines Ward
Plaxico Burress
Santana Moss
Chris Chambers
Donald Driver
Braylon Edwards
Lee Evans
Derrick Mason
Roy Williams

"I think I injured my labia...I mean labrium."

Top Fantasy Running Backs

We know Adrian "Check Out My Smooth Fade While I Run By You" Peterson is the sexy pick here. But we think Edgerrin "I Traded in My Gold Teeth for this Shitty Arizona Cardinals Helmet" James is going to have a big year. Numbers don't lie. He is the model of consistency year in and year out. We don't have much info yet on wonder in waiting Darren "I Went to Arkansas and all I got was a Really Nice Car" McFadden. That is our challenge, but we are working on it.

Here is our Top 20:
LaDainian Tomlinson
Adrian Peterson
Edgerrin James
Brian Westbrook
Clinton Portis
Joseph Addai
Marshawn Lynch
Steven Jackson
Maurice Jones-Drew
Jamal Lewis
Larry Johnson
Ryan Grant
Frank Gore
Rudi Johnson
Willis McGahee
Fred Taylor
Thomas Jones
Marion Barber III
Warrick Dunn
Ahman Green

"Running for Gold!"

Top Fantasy Tight Ends

Why start with tight ends? Because they are the closest thing to the offensive line there is.
You aren't going to like this - but the data doesn't lie. Dallas Clark - the 13th best tight end. He's after Alge "I Just Took a Big" Crumpler? Are you on crack? The fellas over at Fantasy Football Starters certainly don't agree.

Added 8/28 (thanks to Scott for bringing this to our attention): The Oline data shows us that Olines really have the least impact on a TEs performance. This is due to the fact that they tend to be outlet guys. The OLine factor really helps out the glory positions of RB, WR and QB.

Our Top 20:
Antonio Gates
Tony Gonzalez
Jason Witten
Chris Cooley
Alge Crumpler
Jeremy Shockey
Kellen Winslow Jr
Heath Miller
Todd Heap
Randy McMichael
Owen Daniels
Dallas Clark
Tony Scheffler
L.J. Smith
Zach Miller
Vernon Davis
Ben Watson
Greg Olsen
Donald Lee
Drop us a line and we'll send you the data.

"I'm fired up for football!"

O-Line: The Fantasy Football Key to Winning

Ever stop to think that a draft strategy should center around an
O-Line?
The Big Uglies looked at the Top 10 QBs, RBs, TEs, and WRs from the past 5 years. Then we sliced the data and grouped the players into 3 tiers of O-Lines (1-10, 11-20, 21-32) based on the O-line’s overall rank.
Here is a summary breakdown of what we found (percentages are based on a total of 50 players in each position—ie Top 10 QBs from each of the last 5 years=50):
O-lines 1-10 Top 10 QBs= 38 (76%) Top 10 RBs= 27 (54%) Top 10 TEs= 20 (40%) Top 10 WRs= 30 (60%) O-lines 11-20 Top 10 QBs= 10 (20%) Top 10 RBs= 14 (28%) Top 10 TEs= 20 (40%) Top 10 WRs= 12 (24%) O-lines 21-32 Top 10 QBs= 2 (.5%) Top 10 RBs= 9 (18%) Top 10 TEs= 10 (20%) Top 10 WRs= 8 (16%)
Surprising? For you guru’s out there probably not, but this information definitely can make you reconsider your war room strategy. In general, the argument for fielding the best fantasy team ‘on screen’ is to draft the best players. Whether you are drafting first or last, you should fill your roster spots with as many top 10 players as possible. How do you find them? The data above suggests that using the O-line as an indicator of future performance of a top skill player is a good bet. For one of our leagues this year, the Uglies will be trying something different and will be picking our first 10 guys (staying with the top 10 theme) based on whether or not their preseason O-Line rankings are in the top 10. As we get later in the draft and there are no players left (who are any good) from the top 10 O-Lines, we will start drafting guys from teams that have preseason O-Line Rankings in the top 20. Check back with the Uglies the last weekend of August to see how the team turned out and for further analysis of the picks.

Washington Redskins "Hogs" - Where our theory gave birth

A New Type of Fantasy Football Blog

OK. The Olympics are over. They were very sentimental and it looks like the old US of A came away as the medal winner. Now it’s officially time for football.

Who are we?

Two guys that love the game and have had a otherwordly addiction to the fantasy version of the sport. We have matched data and predictive software with our gut instincts. You may laugh at our predictions (Gonzo still a top 2 TE - absurd you may say) Data doesn’t lie, neither does technology run by the top governments in the world to spy on people. We know it’s unfair but so is life. Feel free to use our following predictions you won’t regret it.

"Let the games begin bitches."